On Thursday, India will take the first step towards defending their crown, with the five national selectors finalizing the list of 30 probables for the World Cup.
Indications are that a few of those 'stars' will fail to even make this cut. While form will be the major criterion, fitness too assumes importance since fielding will be critical on the big Australian grounds.
The younger players, thus, may begin on a more hopeful note. The ability to handle the extra bounce Down Under will mater too.
Interestingly, an external factor can come into play, if the Supreme Court decides to reveal the names of players that the Mudgal panel gave it in a sealed envelope.
TOI analyses the key areas that will decide complexion of the World Cup team:
EXPERIENCE
The million-dollar question that the selectors will grapple with is whether to keep out the few veterans who are out of the side at this stage itself, or to keep them in the loop for now, considering their big-match experience.
Virender Sehwag has made it clear that he wants to play another World Cup. Will he get another chance? The problem for him is that, at 36, he isn't a spring chicken anymore. Nor is he in form. Ditto for Gautam Gambhir. Sehwag managed just 131 runs in six games@21.83 for Delhi in the Vijay Hazare Trophy, while Gambhir was only marginally better with 200 in as many (avg 33.33).
Both weren't even included in the North Zone squad for the Deodhar Trophy, which is a big pointer to how and where they stand currently . Harbhajan Singh lost his zing long back, and hasn't done anything spectacular to catch attention.
Yuvraj Singh, the hero of India's 2011 World Cup triumph, may make the cut at this stage, but is he still a match-winner? His lackluster effort in the final of the World T20 may just go against him. Both haven't made much of an impact in domestic cricket either. Zaheer Khan is fighting a major battle with fitness. Their inclusion will straightaway mean that India's fielding prowess goes down by a few notches.
FORM
Current form will probably be the biggest criterion. The team currently has quite a few players, especially the batsmen, on top of their game. In batting, Virat Kohli and Shikhar Dhawan's loss of form on the England tour was a cause for worry, but have recovered their touch on the flatter surfaces at home.
Ajinkya Rahane has been consistent, while Rohit Sharma has proved with his astonishing 264-run knock against Sri Lanka that he, indeed, can be India's 'X-factor', as Kohli branded him. Suresh Raina too seems to be in sizzling flow, while skipper MS Dhoni continues to be a run machine in ODIs. Ambati Rayudu has done well whenever he has got a chance.
In domestic cricket, Manoj Tiwary has made a definite case for himself with scores of 151 and 75 in the Deodhar Trophy, while Manish Pandey also deserves a closer look.
Robin Uthappa is a serious option for an openers' slot after top-scoring in IPL VII (660 runs in 16 games@44.00 with a strike rate of 137.78). That he can keep wickets too is a bonus. The bowling department is a bit of a worry, which reflects in the fact that India have been unable to defend 300-plus scores on quite a few occasions recently.
While Bhuvneshwar Kumar and R Ashwin are safe bets, Mohammad Shami has a tendency to leak runs, while Ishant Sharma looks like he is more suited to Test cricket these days. Ravindra Jadeja's performances have tapered off with Axar Patel looking a better player with each passing day.
NEW BLOOD
Since taking charge, Sandeep Patil's committee has infused 'young blood' in the team regularly. This policy is in sync with the skipper's line of thinking, with preference given to players who can throw themselves on the field and save crucial runs, besides running quickly between the wickets.
The impact of a younger, leaner and hungrier team was visible when India won the Champions Trophy in England last year. There is a fair chance that the likes of Karun Nair, Suryakumar Yadav, Unmukt Chand, Baba Aparajith, Kuldeep Yadav and Sanju Samson, all greenhorns but raring to prove themselves, will be included in the probables' list.
THE CONDITIONS
Australia is a tough place to play cricket. The first challenge that awaits a batsman playing there is the steep bounce. Taking that factor into account, the selectors are likely to show faith in batsmen who can tackle the rising delivery and, more importantly, score runs off it.
Batsmen who can play the horizontal strokes better are likely to be preferred, as will be bowlers who can hit the deck hard. There is an outside chance that the selectors may pick the technically sound Cheteshwar Pujara.
A lesser-known batsman who could just make the cut on this count is Maharashtra's Kedar Jadhav, who can cut and pull well. Amongst the bowlers, Varun Aaron and Umesh Yadav can be considered certainties since they bring the extra yard of pace. Having done well in Australia in the Emerging Trophy earlier this year, seamer Dhawal Kulkarni too puts his hand up for selection.
Amongst spinners, Patel's case is strengthened because of the extra bounce he will be able to generate because of his height. Given the big grounds in Australia, there is a definite chance for a leggie to make it too, with Amit Mishra and Karn Sharma in with a shout.
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